美联储降息救市！8月6日，今日爆出的五大消息全面袭来

Global Landscape - The international situation is exacerbating the financial storm, with the Trump administration announcing a 19% punitive tariff on Indonesian products and escalating trade tensions with Mexico, indicating a rise in global trade protectionism [2] - A new trade agreement between the EU and the US has been reached, with the EU agreeing to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products and an additional $600 billion in investments, while sensitive tariff issues remain unresolved [2] - Central banks worldwide are accelerating the process of "de-dollarization," with $36 billion in US Treasury sales in April and a record accumulation of 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year [2] Federal Reserve Division - The Federal Reserve is experiencing its most significant internal division in 30 years, with a 9:2 vote to maintain interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two members publicly opposed the chair's decision [4][6] - The meeting revealed conflicting views on whether to cut rates, with one faction advocating for an immediate 25 basis point cut due to economic conditions, while another faction insisted on maintaining rates until inflation is under control [6] Economic Challenges - The US economy is showing contradictory signals, with the core CPI rising to 2.9% in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, driven by tariffs that have increased consumer prices [7] - Despite rising inflation, there are signs of economic slowdown, including a drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in hiring, leading to increased market uncertainty [7] Political Turmoil - President Trump called for an immediate 300 basis point rate cut just hours before the FOMC meeting, creating panic in the markets and raising concerns about political interference in monetary policy [8][10] - The probability of Powell being dismissed surged to 26% on prediction markets, causing significant market volatility, including a $20 increase in gold prices and a 25-point drop in the dollar index [8] Market Divergence - Financial markets are displaying a split, with the Dow Jones index falling nearly 1% while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, driven by tech giants like Nvidia, which saw its market cap exceed $4.3 trillion [12] - The futures market is experiencing volatility, with a 97.4% probability of maintaining rates in July but a 62.6% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating investor expectations for future monetary easing [14]