美非农“跌倒”，大A吃饱？

Core Viewpoint - The political interference in statistical data, exemplified by the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director, undermines the credibility of the U.S. dollar and creates uncertainty in the global economy [1][12]. Group 1: Employment Data and Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 106,000, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [3]. - The revisions for May and June were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since the pandemic began [3]. - Following the employment data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 800 points, marking the largest drop in two months, and the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged from 37.7% to 80.8% [6]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are negatively impacting business confidence, with average tariff rates projected to rise to 20%, and manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth threshold for four consecutive months [4]. - The labor market is experiencing structural deterioration, with long-term unemployment increasing and companies like UPS announcing layoffs of 20,000 employees [4]. - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for immediate action due to labor market stagnation, while others warn of persistent inflation risks from tariffs [6][8]. Group 3: Global Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - The U.S. trade deficit influences international capital flows, with a recent shift from a net inflow of $253.1 billion in March to a net outflow of $14.2 billion in April, indicating growing concerns over the tariff war [8]. - The potential for capital outflows from the U.S. market could lead to increased investment in markets like China, as investors seek higher returns amid changing U.S. monetary policy [12]. - The sentiment in the market is shifting, with significant increases in trading volumes for Chinese stocks following remarks from prominent investors advocating for a shift away from U.S. equities [12].