中金：风险资产长期来看仍具潜力 美元下行周期也将持续

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that the U.S. economy hit a bottom in June and showed signs of improvement in July, influenced by policy shocks in the first half of the year [1] Economic Outlook - A wave of debt issuance began in July, gradually absorbing U.S. dollar liquidity [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to become evident, combined with tightening dollar liquidity, which could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may quickly bottom out and gradually rise to around 4.8% [1] Long-term Perspective - From a longer-term perspective, increased fiscal intervention in monetary policy suggests a trend towards renewed dollar liquidity easing [1] - Coupled with fiscal support for the fundamentals, risk assets still hold potential in the long run, and the dollar downcycle is expected to continue [1]