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Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the U.S. economic growth is slowing, suggesting that a rate cut may be an appropriate policy choice in the short term [1][2] - Kashkari expects two rate cuts by the end of the year but noted that if tariffs lead to more persistent inflation effects, the number of cuts may be reduced [3] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the need for a rate cut soon, citing a weakening labor market and the belief that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by nearly 260,000, and the unemployment rate slightly rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - Fed Governor Lael Brainard described the July employment report as concerning, indicating it may signal an economic turning point [3] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 6.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.6% [4] - The probability of maintaining rates in October is 2%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 33.9% and a 50 basis point cut at 64% [4] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with no fees for products manufactured in the U.S. [5][7] - Brazil's President Lula stated that Brazil will not impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. and will continue dialogue with the U.S. government [11][12] Group 5: Shipping and Freight Market Trends - The European shipping index showed signs of stabilization, with the main contract EC2510 reaching 1,420.1 points, reflecting a 0.64% increase [13] - The current freight market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to a decrease in cargo volume and the implementation of new U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - Analysts predict that the European shipping rates will continue to weaken, with a downward trend expected to last until the end of October [17][18]