Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-07 00:16Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is expected to recover from its downturn by Q3 2024, aided by self-initiated production cuts and potential government policies aimed at reducing crude steel output [1] Group 1: Supply-Side Optimization - The two rounds of supply-side optimization from 2016 to 2021 provided valuable experience for the current anti-involution policy formulation and execution [1] - The industry has experienced different cycles of demand, which have contributed to the current strategies being implemented [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The steel industry's recovery is anticipated to occur during a demand downturn, similar to the previous cycle in 2021 [1] - The market is expected to go through two phases: policy expectation trading and substantial improvement in fundamentals [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the anti-involution policy successfully promotes crude steel production cuts, it could further enhance profit recovery in the industry [1] - The adjustment process in the Chinese steel industry may resemble a prolonged battle, drawing parallels with Japan's steel development history [1]