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“双硅”强势反弹 市场有变?
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-07 00:29

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures is primarily driven by fundamental news and the strong performance of coking coal, influenced by government policies regarding coal production [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 6, industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8,700 CNY/ton, up 3.63%, while polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 51,345 CNY/ton, up 3.23% [1]. - The rebound in polysilicon prices is attributed to the recovery of production profits, with current prices exceeding the cost range by 10% [2]. - Industrial silicon is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with weekly production exceeding 78,000 tons and a notable increase in demand from downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Domestic polysilicon production in July was approximately 107,800 tons, with a weekly production increase of 4% [3]. - The supply situation is characterized by a significant reduction in operating rates in the southwestern region, while the focus shifts to the northwest region, where production capacity may increase [2]. - The production cost of industrial silicon is significantly impacted by coal prices, as producing one ton requires about 12,000 kWh of electricity, while polysilicon production requires about 50,000 kWh [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the market for industrial silicon may not see significant capacity clearing, prices are expected to gradually rise due to the overall commodity market trends and potential increases in raw material costs [3]. - The pricing mechanism for polysilicon is currently influenced more by policies and expectations rather than fundamental factors, indicating a potential for price fluctuations in the near term [4].