Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the U.S. economic growth is slowing, suggesting that interest rate cuts may be an appropriate policy choice in the short term [1] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the labor market is weakening and believes the Fed will need to lower rates soon, despite tariffs posing only a short-term inflation threat [2] - Fed Governor Cook described the July employment report as concerning, indicating a potential turning point for the U.S. economy, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from 4.1% in June [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 6.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.6% [3] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in October is 2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 33.9% and a 50 basis point cut at 64% [3] Group 3: Tariff Implications - President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [4] - Trump stated that there would be no fees for products manufactured in the U.S., indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics [5] - Brazil's President Lula confirmed that Brazil would not impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. and would continue dialogue with the U.S. government [8] Group 4: Shipping and Freight Market - The European shipping index showed signs of stabilization, with the main contract EC2510 reaching 1466.8 points before closing at 1420.1 points, influenced by positive macroeconomic news [10] - The current freight market is experiencing downward pressure, with shipping companies reducing rates as demand weakens, leading to an average quote of $2970 for large containers in late August, down $370 from the peak [12] - The overall trend for European shipping rates is expected to remain weak, with a downward trajectory anticipated until the end of October [14]
美联储高官最新表态 降息不远了？局势动荡 欧线集运指数后市如何走？
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-07 00:31