非农后已有3位美联储官员表达忧虑，9月降息概率大增

Core Viewpoint - Recent comments from three Federal Reserve officials indicate growing concerns about the latest signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, significantly increasing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut as early as September [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, and any further slowdown in employment would be concerning [3]. - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari echoed these concerns, suggesting that a rate cut may be appropriate in the short term [4]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook described the significant downward revisions in employment data as indicative of a potential economic turning point, intensifying rate cut speculation [5]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The recent dovish signals from Fed officials provide the clearest indication yet of a potential policy shift [2]. - Daly mentioned that adjustments to policy may be necessary in the coming months to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The officials are weighing the dual mandate of controlling inflation and achieving full employment, with Daly noting that both objectives are currently "roughly balanced" [6]. Group 3: Inflation Considerations - Despite the increasing clarity of rate cut signals, officials remain cautious about balancing inflation risks [6]. - Daly emphasized that more work is needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target, indicating that the Fed is not yet ready to respond to short-term price increases driven by tariffs [7][8]. - Earlier in the week, Daly suggested that two rate cuts this year might be appropriate, leaving room for more aggressive easing if necessary [9].