UBS(US:UBS) 智通财经网·2025-08-07 00:42Core Viewpoint - UBS strategists warn that a weak U.S. labor market and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics may lead to a simultaneous decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in hiring, which has not been fully absorbed by the market [1] - July's non-farm data fell short of expectations, and revisions to the previous two months' figures have raised concerns about the quality and credibility of U.S. economic data [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - Political pressure is eroding the independence of government agencies, leading to increasing worries among investors [3] - Former President Trump reacted strongly to the employment data, calling for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by 8% this year and may continue to fall due to rising risks, while currencies like the euro and yen are expected to appreciate [3] - The simultaneous emergence of traditional macro factors and risk premium elements that are negative for the dollar is noted as a significant development since spring [1]