基本面良好 焦煤有望保持偏强走势

Core Viewpoint - In July, coking coal prices surged due to expectations of "anti-involution," but subsequently retreated as trading limits were adjusted and optimistic expectations were not fully realized [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Optimistic sentiment dominated the market in July, with significant increases in black metal prices, particularly coking coal. However, after major meetings concluded, the realization of strong expectations was limited, leading to a correction in sentiment by the end of July [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises and advance capacity governance in key industries, indicating a shift in policy language from previous meetings [2] - PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed a decline to 49.3% in July, raising concerns about a slowdown in manufacturing demand [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The recovery of coking coal supply has been slow, with domestic coal mines gradually resuming production but still facing challenges due to underground conditions and safety regulations. Current production levels remain significantly below earlier highs [3] - As of August 1, daily average production of premium and raw coal from 523 sample mines was 776,700 tons and 1,935,600 tons, respectively, showing a recovery but still below the year's peaks [3] - Concerns about potential production cuts have arisen following the National Energy Administration's directive to halt operations at mines exceeding their approved production capacity by 10% [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Coking coal imports showed a positive recovery, with June imports reaching 9.1084 million tons, a 23.31% increase month-on-month. However, the cumulative import volume for the first half of the year was down 7.36% year-on-year [4] - Following the conclusion of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, normal customs operations resumed, leading to an increase in daily traffic at key ports [4] - The narrowing price gap between Australian coking coal and domestic coal may lead to increased imports [4] Group 4: Demand Performance - Coking coal demand remains strong, supported by high iron and steel production levels. Daily average iron output from 247 sample steel mills was 2.4071 million tons as of August 1 [5] - The inventory levels of traders and end-users have decreased significantly, prompting a replenishment cycle as supply constraints emerged in June [5] - The profitability of steel mills remains robust, and the ongoing price increases for coking coal indicate sustained demand [5]