供应低位、成本支撑增强 玻璃下行压力有限

Group 1 - Since the end of July, glass futures prices have significantly corrected, with market volatility notably decreasing; spot prices remain stable while transaction volumes are stabilizing, although production and sales have sharply declined in some regions [1] - The current level of downstream orders is average, and many small and medium-sized enterprises face financial pressure; despite a rapid increase in spot prices in mid-July, the willingness for terminal stocking remains weak [1] - The recent "anti-involution" policy has a substantial impact on supply expectations; although the specific implementation and effects of the policy are currently uncertain, the low valuation of glass futures prices has led to a rapid rebound to around 1300 yuan/ton due to market sentiment [1] Group 2 - From a supply perspective, the short-term supply of the float glass industry is relatively sufficient; as of July 31, the industry operating rate was 75%, with a capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 79.78%, a year-to-date high [2] - The daily melting volume increased by 0.38% to 159,600 tons, also a year-to-date high; however, the national float glass production was 1.1152 million tons, a 0.64% increase month-on-month but a 6.37% decrease year-on-year [2] - The current glass market supply is at a near five-year low compared to the same period last year, while demand has been declining since 2022, with new housing starts showing negative growth [2] Group 3 - The current glass inventory is concentrated in the upstream, with low inventory in the downstream; in mid to late July, the rise in futures prices led to speculative demand from traders, boosting market sentiment and quickly depleting upstream inventory [3] - However, the recovery speed of orders from downstream processing plants is slower than expected, and with insufficient terminal orders and limited funds in the downstream, the flow of goods from upstream to downstream is slow [3] - Overall, while the supply in the glass industry is at a near five-year low, the weak terminal demand suggests a lack of sustained upward momentum in prices; the mid-term futures market is expected to gradually return to fundamental trading [3]