全球资产配置转向初现 海外家办转向黄金、另类资产

Market Overview - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX follow with increases of 24.14% and 19.77% respectively, while US indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 have risen by 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - In the bond market, China's 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% this year, while the US 10-year yield has decreased from 4.37% to 4.22% [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has shown remarkable performance, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $2646.3 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $3375.30 per ounce by August 5, marking a 27.55% increase [2] - Conversely, the ICE Brent crude oil has seen a decline of 9.32% this year [2] Family Office Trends - Family offices are increasingly adopting a conservative approach due to rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a shift in focus towards stable returns [3][4] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," while overseas family offices are more open to accepting single-digit returns in the current market environment [3] - There is a notable trend of family offices reducing cash holdings, with plans to hold only 6% in cash by 2025, while increasing investments in alternative assets like private debt [4] Asset Allocation Shifts - Family offices are observing three key trends in asset allocation: an increase in fixed income and cash-like assets, a rise in consultations for "safety net" tools, and a longer due diligence period for private equity investments [4] - While domestic family offices exhibit a strong aversion to risk and a preference for cash, overseas family offices are diversifying into gold and alternative assets [4][5] Global Asset Allocation - Family offices' wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% of their investments in developed market stocks and bonds [6] - There is a gradual shift in asset allocation, with some family offices beginning to reduce their exposure to the US market and reallocating to European markets [6] - Interest in the Greater China region is increasing, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from the previous year [7] Emerging Markets and New Investment Opportunities - Family offices are increasingly looking towards emerging technologies such as pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence for future investments [7] - Domestic family offices are entering a "second acceleration" phase in seeking high returns overseas, with a growing interest in regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, and emerging markets [8]