非农后已有3位美联储官员表达忧虑 9月降息概率大增

Core Viewpoint - Recent comments from three Federal Reserve officials indicate growing concerns about the weakening U.S. labor market, significantly increasing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut as early as September [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - San Francisco Fed President Daly stated that the labor market is showing signs of weakness and that any further slowdown in employment would be concerning [3]. - Daly suggested that policy adjustments may be necessary in the coming months to prevent further deterioration of the job market [4]. - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari echoed these concerns, indicating that a rate cut might be appropriate in the short term [4]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll report revealed that July's job growth was significantly below expectations, with prior months' data being revised downward, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate [1]. - Fed Governor Cook described the substantial downward revision of previous employment data as a typical characteristic of an economic turning point, suggesting that the Fed is preparing for a potential economic shift [6]. Group 3: Policy Considerations and Inflation Risks - Despite the clear signals for a rate cut, officials emphasized the need to balance their dual mandate of controlling inflation and achieving full employment [7]. - Daly noted that adjusting interest rates is aimed at "recalibrating" policies to better align with the risks associated with inflation and unemployment, which she believes are currently "roughly balanced" [7]. - Daly also highlighted that more work is needed to fully cool inflation to the 2% target, and mentioned that tariffs may temporarily raise prices, but their impact might not be long-lasting enough to warrant a policy response [8][9].