美元危险？瑞银警告：两大利空首次同时生效！

Group 1 - UBS Group strategists indicate that a weak U.S. labor market and changes in the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics may pose downside risks to the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds [1] - The employment report showing a slowdown in job growth and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official have led to a shift in market sentiment towards expectations of interest rate cuts in future meetings [1] - Concerns about political pressure on U.S. institutions and their independence are increasing as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down [1] Group 2 - CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 48% a week prior, with expectations of a total cut of 62 basis points this year [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the call for rate cuts, suggesting the Fed may need to lower rates in the short term to address the economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - Weak employment data has led to President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and criticizing Fed Chair Powell for not cutting rates [3] - Concerns about the quality and credibility of U.S. economic data could negatively impact the perception of U.S. assets and expose them to currency risk [3] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index, which has already fallen 8% this year, may decline further under these risks, while currencies like the euro and yen are expected to rise [3]