美债收益率曲线惊现零利率时代“魅影”，特朗普降息豪言被当真？

Group 1 - The core observation is that the five-year U.S. Treasury bonds are currently at a historically high valuation compared to other maturities, a rare occurrence outside of the Federal Reserve setting the overnight loan rate target to 0% [1][4] - As of Wednesday, the five-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 3.78%, which is high since early 2022, indicating a significant valuation anomaly in the bond market [1] - The valuation assessment, using a common relative value calculation method, shows that the five-year Treasury yield is overvalued, with a "butterfly spread" calculation resulting in a near -100 basis points, the lowest since early 2021 [1] Group 2 - The valuation of the five-year Treasury bonds is primarily influenced by market expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the market pricing in more short-term cuts and a larger cumulative reduction since the beginning of the year [4] - The five-year Treasury has been the best-performing segment of the U.S. Treasury market this year, while persistent inflation and the trend of the U.S. budget deficit exert upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [4] - There are indications that investors are betting on significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve during a potential second term for Trump, reflecting a broader expectation of a more accommodative policy path after leadership changes in the Fed next year [4]