从非农数据争议到美联储降息猜想：全球资本市场将迎怎样变局？

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a significant miss with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 258,000, raising concerns about data reliability and potential political influence on economic statistics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Revision - The substantial downward revision of May and June data was attributed to additional survey results collected after the initial data release and recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors [2][3]. - Non-farm employment data is based on surveys from approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, with initial values published based on about 60% of the data received [2]. - Seasonal adjustment models may lag behind structural economic changes, leading to significant deviations in initial values, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Policy - The weak employment data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may follow a similar pattern as last year, where it maintained rates in July but cut rates significantly in September [4]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its target federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% for five consecutive meetings, citing economic uncertainty and the need for more data [4][5]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, with two members voting against the consensus for the first time since 1993 [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, there was a panic in the markets, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping, and both the dollar and U.S. stocks declining, while gold prices rose [7]. - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if labor market weakness persists [6][7]. - The anticipated rate cut could lead to improved global liquidity, benefiting overseas markets such as Hong Kong and A-shares, while potentially putting pressure on U.S. dollar assets [7].