TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-08-07 06:05Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with cost advantages in the context of "anti-involution" in the industry, particularly highlighting the benefits of natural soda ash production methods over synthetic methods [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer of soda ash, accounting for 51% of global production [1] - From 2016 to 2022, capacity growth was constrained by policy impacts, with recent years seeing new capacity primarily from natural soda ash methods. As of 2024, China's soda ash capacity is projected to reach 43.45 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons year-on-year, with the majority of new capacity coming from natural soda ash methods [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current industry operating rate is approximately 80%, with signs of oversupply in the domestic soda ash market expected in the first half of 2025. The price spread for soda ash products is at historically low levels, situated in the bottom range since 2009 [2] - Approximately 30% of the soda ash industry's capacity is considered outdated, with 10% of this capacity having energy consumption and emissions below benchmark levels. As of 2020, about 10% of the soda ash industry capacity did not meet benchmark standards, and projects below these standards are expected to undergo upgrades or be phased out by the end of 2025 [2]