中州期货：2025年“基石计划”铁矿石产量目标完成难度较大

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's iron ore production and import statistics indicate a slight increase in domestic production but a significant reliance on imports, highlighting challenges in achieving the "Cornerstone Plan" targets for 2025 [1][8]. Group 1: Production and Import Data - In 2024, China's iron ore raw ore production reached 104.194 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while iron concentrate production was 28.402 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% [1]. - Iron ore imports reached 123.655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, accounting for approximately 72% of global iron ore imports, with a dependency rate of 81.3% [1]. Group 2: "Cornerstone Plan" Goals - The "Cornerstone Plan" aims for domestic iron concentrate production of 37 million tons, scrap consumption of 30 million tons, and overseas equity ore production of 22 million tons by 2025 [1]. - As of the first half of 2025, domestic iron concentrate production was only 13.775 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.97%, indicating significant challenges in meeting the plan's targets [1][8]. Group 3: New Mining Projects - Six new iron ore mining projects are expected to contribute an additional 6.565 million tons of iron concentrate production in 2025 [2]. - Key projects include: - Taihe Iron Mine, which will expand to a processing capacity of 10 million tons and produce 360,000 tons of iron concentrate annually [2]. - Xichang Mine's 500,000-ton ultra-poor comprehensive recovery project, expected to produce 50,000 tons of iron concentrate annually [3]. - Zhongjiu Iron Mine, with a capacity of 200,000 tons and an expected annual output of 77,000 tons of iron concentrate [4]. - Lunan Macheng Iron Mine, projected to produce 737,500 tons of iron concentrate annually [5]. - Cuihongshan Iron Polymetallic Mine, expected to produce 85,000 tons of iron concentrate annually [6]. - Sishanling Iron Mine, anticipated to produce 125,000 tons of iron concentrate in 2025 [7]. Group 4: Challenges to Achieving Production Goals - The decline in iron ore prices has reduced the willingness of domestic mining companies to invest in new projects, as prices fell from $137 per ton to below $100 per ton [9][10]. - Environmental policies and resource consolidation have increased entry barriers for mining companies, leading to higher capital expenditures for compliance [11]. - Investment growth in the iron ore mining sector has lagged behind other sectors, further limiting capacity expansion [12].