国信证券：钾肥、草甘膦价格上行 农药行业下行周期已经见底

Group 1: Potash Market - The potash supply and demand are in a tight balance, with international potash prices continuing to rise [1] - China is the largest potash consumer globally, with an import dependency exceeding 60%. In 2024, domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1%, marking a historical high [1] - As of July 2025, domestic potassium chloride port inventory is 1.82 million tons, down 950,000 tons year-on-year, a decline of 34.39% [1] Group 2: Phosphate Industry - The phosphate chemical industry's prosperity is dependent on the price of phosphate rock, with a tight supply-demand situation emerging due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs [2] - The market price for 30% grade phosphate rock has remained in the high range of 900 yuan/ton for over two years, with current prices in Hubei at 1,040 yuan/ton and in Yunnan at 970 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Phosphate Fertilizer Export - The price gap between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers is widening, with export quotas reduced compared to last year, emphasizing domestic priority and self-regulated exports [3] - As of July 30, the price difference for monoammonium phosphate between the Baltic FOB price and Hubei market price is approximately 1,707 yuan/ton, while the price difference for diammonium phosphate is about 1,451 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Pesticide Industry - The pesticide sector is experiencing a bottoming out of its downward cycle, with prices having dropped significantly over the past three years, down nearly two-thirds from their peak [4] - Increased planting area in South America is driving up pesticide demand, while supply from India and the US remains limited, leading to a strong replenishment demand during the peak season [4] - The capital expenditure growth in the pesticide industry has been negative for four consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the current expansion phase [4]