中邮证券：给予藏格矿业买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The research report on Cangge Mining (000408) indicates a strong performance in potassium chloride profitability and highlights the impressive results from Jilong Copper Mining, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4.7% compared to 1.762 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 38.8% from 1.297 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 1.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 41.6% [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.8%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 103.9% from 552 million yuan in Q1 [2]. Product Performance - The potassium chloride production in H1 2025 was 485,200 tons, with sales of 535,900 tons, achieving 48.52% and 56.41% of the annual targets, respectively [3]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,845 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 25.57%, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.36% [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 67,470 yuan/ton, with an average sales cost of 41,478 yuan/ton, maintaining robust profitability despite price fluctuations [3]. Cost Management - The operating costs for H1 2025 were 719 million yuan, a decrease of 19.73% year-on-year [4]. - The operating cost for potassium chloride was 534 million yuan, down 8.08% year-on-year, while the cost for lithium carbonate was 185 million yuan, a significant decrease of 41.18% [4]. Future Growth Prospects - Jilong Copper Mining, in which Cangge Mining holds a 30.78% stake, produced 92,800 tons of copper and generated an investment income of 1.264 billion yuan, accounting for 70.22% of the company's net profit [5]. - The second phase of Jilong Copper Mining's expansion is underway, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, which will increase annual copper production capacity to 300,000-350,000 tons [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Cangge Mining from 2025 to 2027 are 3.711 billion yuan, 5.477 billion yuan, and 5.958 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 48%, and 9%, respectively [6].