事件描述 公司发布2025 年三季报，2025Q3 实现营业收入7.23 亿元，环比-35.76%；实现归母净利9.51亿元，环 比-9.72%；实现扣非归母净利9.48 亿元，环比-10.43%。 事件评论 铜板块，巨龙成绩维持亮眼。2025Q3 巨龙贡献投资收益6.86 亿元，环比+5%。Q3 巨龙迎来量价双升， 铜价、钼价Q3 均环比走高，期间实现铜产销量4.97 万吨。巨龙二期选厂精选系统已成功试车，德庆普 尾矿库主排洪隧洞下游段也已安全精准贯通，全面保障二期顺利投产。 锂板块，受矿证手续导致7.17-10.11 停产影响，Q3 锂产销大幅下滑，拖累锂板块业绩。 2025Q3 公司锂盐产销分别为851 吨、330 吨；销售均价6.51 万/吨（含税），销售成本3.42 万元/吨，环 比下降近0.5 万。目前公司已于10.11 正式复产，年度产销计划均调整为8510 吨，预计Q4 实现产销2489 吨、3710 吨，Q4 伴随销量价格双回暖，预计锂板块将为公司贡献业绩增量。 钾板块，成本优化持续进行。2025Q3 贡献归母净利约3.56 亿元。2025Q3 公司钾肥产销分别为21.64 万 吨、24.7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月21日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 4.83%、8.65%、6.20%、9.69%、7.59%、 7.40%、12.16%、16.45%。中信一级行业指数中石油石化、纺织服装、 基础化工、家电、钢铁行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合 金融、商贸零售、非银行金融、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概 念指数中，石油天然气、锂矿、林木、锂电池、HJT 电池、万得微盘股 日频等权、操作系统等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，共 1127 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][24] - As of November 21, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index 8.65%, CSI 300 6.20%, CSI 500 9.69%, CSI 1000 7.59%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 12.16%, and STAR 50 Index 16.45% [5][24] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, basic chemicals, home appliances, and steel [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 1,127 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment and new energy sectors [2][13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the textiles and apparel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective proportions of 41.41%, 38.89%, and 38.71% [13][24] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 364 and 315 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 15 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Heertai, Sry New Materials, and Cangge Mining, with the manufacturing and cyclical sectors contributing the most stocks [3][20][25] - The construction industry had the highest number of new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the non-ferrous metals industry led in the cyclical sector [20][25]

工业金属：降息预期升温，部分金属供给扰动加剧。2025年第三季度，在对美国经济走弱、通胀走高的 担忧下，美联储降息预期进一步升温，同时特朗普加大对美联储干预，包括铜在内的工业金属价格得到 宏观宽松的支撑。与此同时，部分金属供给刚性持续增加，9月，全球第二大铜矿自由港旗下印尼 Grasberg铜矿发生矿难，预计将对2025年四季度及2026年全球铜矿供应产生影响，铜价进一步震荡向 上。前三季度，LME铜现货均价9561.07美元/吨，较2024年同期9131.16美元增长4.71%；前三季度LME 铝现货均价2566.06美元/吨，较2024年同期2366.41美元/吨增长8.44%。前三季度LME铅锌均价分别为 1961.14美元/吨、2769.79美元/吨，同比2024年上半年均价2094.7美元/吨、2687.7美元/吨分别下降 6.38%、上涨3.05%。 能源金属：板块或已筑底，反弹可期。2025年前三季度，国产碳酸锂（电池级，纯度99.5%）和氢氧化 锂（纯度56.5%）均价分别为71339.89元/吨、67844.81元/吨，同比2024年前三季度分别下降25.17%、 21.47%。从趋势来看， ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a slight increase of 0.09% on November 20, with Shengxin Lithium Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) closed at 40.70, up 6.77% with a trading volume of 1.47 million shares and a transaction value of 6.01 billion [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. (002192) closed at 65.51, up 3.56% with a trading volume of 516,200 shares and a transaction value of 3.41 billion [1] - Cangge Mining (000408) closed at 62.50, up 2.73% with a trading volume of 239,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.50 billion [1] - Other notable stocks include Xiyang Mining (000762) down 0.10% and Huayou Cobalt (603799) down 0.68% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 268 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 92.67 million [2] - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 360 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Shengxin Lithium Energy had a net inflow of 249 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 137 million from speculative funds [3] - Yongxing Materials (002756) saw a net inflow of 21.27 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 32.85 million from retail investors [3] - Huayou Cobalt experienced a net outflow of 45.14 million from institutional investors, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 52.76 million [3]

钾、锂、铜三大产品线的战略布局，则为藏格矿业增强了抵御周期波动的能力。王薇指出，这三大产品 分属不同板块，具有不同的行业周期和轮动特征，这种综合配置有效平滑了企业的财务表现。 在供应链ESG管理方面，藏格矿业展现出负责任的企业担当。2024年，藏格矿业首次发布《供应商ESG 管理手册》，将ESG要素全面纳入供应商遴选过程。 【藏格矿业王薇：ESG既要着眼长远也要立足当下】11月19日，在由《中国经营报》主办的"变革破局 共生共赢——2025中国新能源产业高质量发展论坛"上，藏格矿业可持续发展负责人王薇表示，尽管藏 格矿业从2022年开始就将ESG提升到董事会战略高度，但在具体实践中始终坚持平衡原则。 "我们需要找到ESG长期可持续发展目标与企业生产经营目标之间的同频共振模式，更好地推动经济、 环境、社会、治理各个维度的全面平衡发展。"王薇说道。 这种平衡思维体现在藏格矿业的各项决策中。在王薇看来，ESG虽然重要，但只是企业决策的考量因素 之一，而非全部。如果ESG投入对财务表现造成过度冲击，反而会损害股东、债权人等利益相关方的权 益，这与ESG理念相违背。 另据王薇介绍，藏格矿业通过资源综合利用、技术创新和多 ...

钾、锂、铜三大产品线的战略布局，则为藏格矿业增强了抵御周期波动的能力。王薇指出，这三大产品 分属不同板块，具有不同的行业周期和轮动特征，这种综合配置有效平滑了企业的财务表现。 在供应链ESG管理方面，藏格矿业展现出负责任的企业担当。2024年，藏格矿业首次发布《供应商ESG 管理手册》，将ESG要素全面纳入供应商遴选过程。 今年6月，藏格矿业作为关键发起方之一，与十余家行业头部企业共同发布了供应链ESG管理倡议 （SCSI）。王薇表示，这一倡议的初衷是通过行业头部企业的引领作用，促进整个供应链更加透明， 解决当前供应链审核中存在的效率低下、重复审查等问题。 "可持续发展不是非此即彼的选择题，而是在不断探索中寻找平衡点。"王薇认为，真正可持续的ESG实 践，既要着眼长远，也要立足当下;既要追求环境社会效益，也要注重企业发展质量。 中经记者 董曙光 成都报道 11月19日，在由《中国经营报》主办的"变革破局 共生共赢——2025中国新能源产业高质量发展论 坛"上，藏格矿业可持续发展负责人王薇表示，尽管藏格矿业从2022年开始就将ESG提升到董事会战略 高度，但在具体实践中始终坚持平衡原则。 "我们需要找到ESG长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has faced declining profits for three consecutive years since 2022, with some sectors experiencing intense competition and overall losses. However, there are signs of potential recovery driven by industry self-regulation and improved supply-demand balance, which may enhance profitability [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index rose by 0.17%, with notable increases in stocks such as Hongda Co. (+8.66%), Tongcheng New Materials (+4.35%), and Salt Lake Co. (+3.71%) [1]. - The basic chemical industry's price-to-book (PB) ratio is currently close to the bottom levels observed in 2019 and 2024, indicating that the valuation remains low [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Huatai Securities predicts that the basic chemical sector may see an upward trend starting in 2026, suggesting a focus on resilient domestic and foreign demand as well as improved market conditions [1]. - Since June 2025, there has been a significant decline in capital expenditure growth within the industry, which, combined with self-regulation efforts, is expected to facilitate supply-side coordination and the elimination of outdated capacity [1]. - Domestic demand is anticipated to recover further, supported by exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, leading to a gradual recovery in bulk chemicals [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.83% of the index, with major players including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co. [2]. - Investors can also explore investment opportunities in the chemical sector through the Chemical ETF (159129), which closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index [2][3].

Company Performance - Cangge Mining's stock price reached a historical high, increasing by 3.83% to 63.17 yuan, with a trading volume of 9.61 million shares and a transaction value of 600 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 0.61% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of the company in A-shares is 99.19 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 99.19 billion yuan [2] - The company's Q3 report indicates a total operating revenue of 2.401 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.35%, and a net profit of 2.751 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.26% [2] - The basic earnings per share are reported at 1.7566 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 18.30% [2] Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry, to which Cangge Mining belongs, has an overall increase of 1.60%, with 118 stocks rising, including Shengxin Lithium Energy and Shenzhen New Star, which both increased by 9.99% [2] - Among the stocks that declined, Alloy Investment, Hunan Silver, and Yunnan Germanium saw decreases of 5.61%, 2.68%, and 2.46%, respectively [2] Margin Trading Data - As of November 19, the latest margin trading balance for Cangge Mining is 1.637 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 1.590 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 171,000 yuan over the past 10 days, which is a 0.01% decline [2]