通胀分化掩盖表面稳定 内部差异加大欧洲央行利率决策难度

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is celebrating the stability of inflation in the Eurozone, with a current inflation rate of 2%, but significant disparities exist among member countries, complicating economic management [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Rates Across Eurozone - In July, only Finland's inflation rate met the ECB's target of 2%, while other major economies like Germany, France, and Italy reported rates below this target [1]. - The gap in inflation rates among Eurozone countries has widened to 5.5 percentage points, up from a low earlier in the year, indicating increasing divergence in economic conditions [3]. - The ECB has maintained interest rates after eight consecutive cuts, with President Lagarde expressing confidence in the stability of inflation at the target level [3]. Group 2: National Central Bank Perspectives - The Greek central bank governor indicated a balance has been achieved between inflation, banking development, and economic growth, suggesting a reluctance to lower rates further, with Greece's inflation at 3.7% [4]. - The Spanish central bank governor emphasized patience in decision-making, with Spain's inflation at 2.7% [4]. - The French central bank governor highlighted the importance of keeping future decisions open, as France's inflation rate has been below 2% for nearly a year, currently at 0.9% [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - Predictions indicate that the average inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to reach 2% by 2027, but only three countries are projected to meet this target [6]. - Service inflation has consistently outpaced overall inflation for two years, driven by recent wage growth, with the current gap exceeding the historical average [9]. - Factors such as a strong euro, influx of cheap goods from countries facing high U.S. tariffs, and weakened export demand may lead to lower-than-expected price growth in the future [12].