小米股价大跌！一度跌超5%，创近两个月新低

Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) experienced a significant drop, with the stock price falling over 5% during trading on August 7, reaching a two-month low [1] - The stock closed down 4.35% at HKD 51.65 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Daiwa reported a slight downward revision in Xiaomi's smartphone shipment forecast for Q2 2025, primarily due to a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market [4] - Canalys data indicated a 1% year-on-year decline in global smartphone shipments for Q2 2025, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters [4] - Despite a historical high global market share of 15% in Q2 2025, Xiaomi's gross margin decreased [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - Daiwa forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2025 to be RMB 112.6 billion, slightly below market expectations, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10.2 billion, in line with market expectations [4] - Due to the downward revision of smartphone gross margin forecasts, Daiwa lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 7%, and reduced the target price from HKD 78 to HKD 72 [5] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries are expected to reach 82,000 units in Q2 2025, with an average selling price of RMB 242,000 and an improved gross margin of 25% [4] - The company’s electric vehicle business is narrowing losses, with the second phase of the factory expected to commence production by the end of September [4][6] - Guosen Securities anticipates Xiaomi's vehicle sales to reach 400,000 to 500,000 units in 2025, and potentially exceed 800,000 units in 2026 [6] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - Nomura raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to HKD 61 based on SOTP valuation but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [6] - Analysts expect Xiaomi to face challenges in the upcoming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high market expectations for the electric vehicle business [6]