原油大降8.1%，8月7日国内92,95号汽油涨幅“5连降”，下跌160元/吨，8月12日调价，油价变跌中

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to undergo adjustments in August, with the first adjustment scheduled for August 12, 2025, and the second for August 26, 2025. The outcome of these adjustments will depend on the fluctuations in the international crude oil market in the coming days [1]. Oil Price Review - In July 2025, domestic refined oil prices experienced a "rise followed by a fall," with gasoline prices increasing by 105 yuan and diesel prices by 100 yuan per ton. Compared to the end of June, the price of 92/95 gasoline rose by 0.09 yuan per liter [3]. - The current pricing cycle for the 16th adjustment began on July 30 and will end on August 12, covering a total of 10 working days [3]. Crude Oil Market Changes - Initially, international oil prices saw a brief increase, with WTI crude reaching 70 USD per barrel and Brent crude at 73.24 USD per barrel. However, prices fell significantly, with WTI dropping to 65.16 USD per barrel, marking a 7% decrease [3]. - As of August 6, WTI crude fell to 64.35 USD per barrel, down 1.24%, while Brent crude decreased to 66.89 USD per barrel, down 1.11%. The cumulative decline in WTI crude prices during this pricing cycle reached 8.1% [3][5]. Recent Market Trends - The recent drop in oil prices is attributed to a deteriorating economic outlook, with disappointing U.S. economic data and concerns over demand. Additionally, OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by an average of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September [5]. - Despite geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariffs on India, market sentiment remains cautious, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [5]. Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The anticipated price increase for the 16th adjustment was initially projected at 230 yuan per ton due to a temporary spike in crude oil prices. However, with the recent 8.1% drop in crude prices, the expected increase in domestic oil prices has significantly narrowed [5]. - As of August 7, the average crude oil price was reported at 69.27 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 1.47%. The estimated increase for gasoline and diesel has been reduced to 70 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of approximately 0.06 yuan per liter for 92/95 gasoline [7]. Market Outlook - With only five days remaining until the next price adjustment on August 12, the current pricing cycle has completed 70% of its working days. The significant drop in international oil prices has led to a reduction of 160 yuan per ton in domestic oil prices, with only 20 yuan per ton remaining before a potential price freeze [7]. - If the trend of weak fluctuations in the crude oil market continues, it is likely that the upcoming adjustment will result in a price freeze, with the possibility of a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices [7].