特朗普关税大棒正式落地，全球经济迎来“压力测试”

Group 1 - The new tariff system under President Trump's administration has raised the average tariff rate in the U.S. to 15.2%, significantly higher than last year's 2.3%, marking the highest level since World War II [2] - Key trading partners such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea have negotiated a 15% "preferential tariff rate" to avoid a 25% tax on critical exports like automobiles, while Switzerland and India face higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. is still negotiating tariff increases with major trading partners Mexico, Canada, and China, and Trump has pledged to impose new tariffs on key industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [2] Group 2 - Despite low unemployment rates, there are signs of economic challenges ahead, with July employment data being revised down significantly and economic growth slowing in the first half of the year [3] - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have raised alarms about potential declines in the S&P 500 index amid rising inflation and slowing consumer spending [3] - Recent polls indicate that a majority of voters oppose Trump's tariff policies and express dissatisfaction with his economic management, raising questions about the sustainability of his trade plans [3] Group 3 - Experts have criticized the legal foundation of Trump's tariff measures, suggesting that the government is attempting to create a false narrative that the "tariff cycle is ending" [4] - Trump has claimed that tariff revenues could lead to tax refunds for some Americans, with customs data showing record tariff revenues of $113 billion for the nine months ending in June [4] - There is skepticism regarding the goal of reviving domestic manufacturing, as increased tariff revenues may not align with job growth, since reduced imports would naturally lead to lower tariff income [4]