2025年“反内卷”政策联合解读：规范竞争，提质促新（附下载）

Group 1: Macro Overview - The "anti-involution" initiative is a high-level deployment aimed at resolving supply-demand contradictions and leading industry breakthroughs [2][3] - The causes of "involution" competition include supply-demand mismatches, inadequate market systems, and local government and enterprise behaviors [2][3] - Solutions to "involution" competition require coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides, including government regulation and market effectiveness [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Reform Strategies - The current supply-side reform focuses on building a unified market and fair competition reviews to regulate local government tax incentives [3] - Tax policies will be adjusted to reduce export tax rebates for specific industries, and a price governance mechanism will be improved [3] - Industry associations are encouraged to strengthen self-regulation to curb bidding behaviors below cost [3] Group 3: Characteristics of Current "Involution" Competition - The real estate market adjustment has led to supply-demand mismatches affecting production capacity utilization rates [4] - Manufacturing investment has rapidly expanded, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.3% from 2022 to 2024, outpacing industrial value-added growth [4] - Private enterprises are participating in this round of "involution" competition, with lower asset turnover rates compared to state-owned enterprises [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The previous supply-side reform (2016-2017) utilized administrative measures to address overcapacity and improve market conditions [5] - The current "anti-involution" approach is primarily market-driven, with a broader industry scope and significant private enterprise involvement [5] - The capital market experienced a 20%-30% average increase in traditional cyclical sectors following the last supply-side reform [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Market Insights - The 2015 supply-side reform led to approximately 30 basis points adjustment in the bond market, with a focus on policy effects and risk preferences [6] - The current "anti-involution" lacks clear quantitative targets, making the supply-side situation more complex [6] Group 6: Capital Expenditure Cycle Perspective - The "anti-involution" policy is a significant driver for the decline in capital expenditure, which is essential for improving supply-demand dynamics [7] - The overall capital expenditure in A-shares continues to decline, with improvements in free cash flow observed [7] Group 7: Automotive Industry Dynamics - The domestic automotive market faces stock competition and rapid expansion, leading to "involution" competition [8] - The government has initiated measures to regulate competition in the automotive sector, including cost investigations and price monitoring [8] - Leading automotive companies are responding by shortening payment terms and optimizing inventory management [9] Group 8: Electronics Industry Trends - The supply side of the panel industry is increasingly concentrated in mainland China, with a projected 74% global capacity share by 2024 [10] - Major panel manufacturers are adopting "just-in-time" production strategies to maintain market balance, reducing cyclical fluctuations [11] Group 9: Upstream Commodities and Energy - The "anti-involution" initiative is promoting price stabilization in the construction materials sector and accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity [12]