特朗普关税即将正式生效，全球经济的考验才刚刚开始

Core Points - The Trump administration's aggressive trade policies are pushing the U.S. into a new phase of protectionism, creating uncertainty for the global economy and raising concerns about inflation and financial market impacts [1] - The new tariff policy has raised the average tariff rate in the U.S. from 2.3% to 15.2%, with specific countries facing individual rates and a 40% transit tax for goods rerouted through third countries [1][2] - Financial analysts warn of potential market corrections, with major institutions predicting short-term declines in the S&P 500 index [1] Tariff Details and Global Supply Chain - The framework for new tariffs has been established, but key details remain unresolved, causing ongoing uncertainty in global supply chains [2] - Many countries have committed to investing billions in the U.S. in exchange for lower tariff rates, but specific agreements, especially regarding automotive tariffs, are still pending [2] - Countries like Switzerland have failed to negotiate lower tariffs, and additional tariffs have been imposed on goods from India in response to its oil imports from Russia [2] Economic Impact and Employment - The Trump administration claims that high tariffs will reduce the trade deficit and bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but critics argue this could lead to inflation and product shortages [4] - Recent economic data shows a significant downward revision in U.S. job growth, with consumer spending slowing and economic growth decelerating in the first half of the year [4] - Although unemployment remains low and prices stable for now, experts warn that this situation may not last, with rising costs likely to lead to price increases [5] Tariff Revenue and Manufacturing - Despite challenges, the Trump administration touts record tariff revenues of $113 billion over nine months, suggesting potential tax rebates for Americans [6] - There is a fundamental contradiction in the administration's goals, as increasing tariff revenue and manufacturing job growth may not be simultaneously achievable [6]