利率债增值税调整：为何红利资产是最优解？

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, while interest income from previously issued bonds will continue to be exempt until maturity. This adjustment is expected to structurally impact pricing logic, making dividend assets structural beneficiaries and potentially attracting long-term capital inflows [1]. Group 1: Impact on Bond Market - The decrease in after-tax yields on interest-bearing bonds will force the market to reduce bond allocations. Investors will require higher market interest rates to compensate for the tax burden, but the unique investor structure in the bond market, such as commercial banks and insurance companies, will limit significant reductions in new bond allocations [1]. - The proportion of allocation-type funds in China's government bond market has consistently remained above 70%, which will provide a "bottoming" effect, leading to insufficient interest rate adjustments and significantly weakening the upward momentum of interest rates [1][2]. Group 2: Shift to Dividend Assets - Dividend assets are expected to be the core beneficiaries of this capital shift. Insurance funds have a natural demand for "long-duration + stable cash flow" assets, as they need to match long-duration liabilities with equivalent assets to hedge interest rate risks [4]. - High dividend stocks currently offer yields that are generally higher than the 10-year government bond yields, with the average dividend rate of the CSI Dividend Index exceeding 4% over the past five years, significantly higher than the average yield of government bonds during the same period [4][6]. Group 3: Tax Implications and Market Dynamics - The tax adjustment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of dividend assets relative to interest-bearing bonds, as insurance institutions can enjoy tax exemptions on dividend income from stocks held for over 12 months [6]. - This tax policy is seen as a way to create space for monetary policy operations, structurally pushing up the risk-free interest rate without altering the overall monetary policy stance or social financing costs [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - In the current environment, the dividend index with a relatively balanced industry distribution is likely to perform well. Bank stocks, a significant part of the high-dividend sector, may face short-term volatility due to conflicting factors such as rising interest rates benefiting net interest margins and increasing funding costs from newly issued financial bonds [8]. - For investors seeking long-term stable returns, this is considered a favorable time to allocate to dividend assets and benefit from policy adjustments, with specific products like the E Fund Dividend ETF and the E Fund Low Volatility Dividend ETF being highlighted [10].