美联储9月降息“剧本”重演？关注恒生科技新一轮修复机会

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the significant drop in U.S. non-farm payroll data for July has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with market confidence in a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][5][7] - The July non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 104,000, and previous months' data were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest downward revision since May 2020 [4][5] - Federal Reserve officials have signaled a readiness to cut rates, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September exceeding 90%, reflecting strong market confidence in a policy shift towards easing [5][7] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, is expected to benefit significantly from a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as it is highly sensitive to interest rate environments [1][8][14] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 21.55, which is below 79% of the time since its inception, indicating potential for upward movement as market conditions improve [16][18] - The influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong market has reached a record high of HKD 866.84 billion by the end of July, reflecting growing confidence among mainland investors [9][11] Group 3 - The technology sector within the Hong Kong market is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, making it particularly responsive to changes in global liquidity and interest rates [11][15] - If the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle, it is anticipated that the technology sector will experience strong upward momentum due to improved market liquidity [14][15] - The upcoming earnings reports for major internet companies within the Hang Seng Tech Index are expected to confirm current market sentiments, with limited downward pressure on stock prices due to already pessimistic expectations being priced in [18][19]