Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-07 12:29Core Insights - Eli Lilly's experimental oral weight loss drug orforglipron showed a weight reduction of approximately 11%, which fell short of Wall Street expectations that anticipated results comparable to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy [1] - Following the announcement, Eli Lilly's stock dropped 7% in pre-market trading, while Novo Nordisk's stock rose by 7% [1] - Eli Lilly reported better-than-expected Q2 earnings and raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance [2] Financial Performance - In Q2, Eli Lilly achieved revenue of $15.557 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 38% [2][3] - The obesity drug portfolio, primarily driven by diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss therapy Zepbound, generated over $8 billion in revenue due to strong demand [2] - Mounjaro generated approximately $5.199 billion in revenue, up 68% year-over-year, while Zepbound's revenue reached about $3.381 billion, a 172% increase [5] Earnings and Guidance - Eli Lilly's adjusted gross margin improved from 82% to 85% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings per share increasing by 61% to $6.31, exceeding market expectations by $0.72 [4] - The company raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the year to between $21.75 and $23, up from a previous range of $20.78 to $22.28 [6] - Eli Lilly also increased its 2025 revenue forecast by $1.5 billion to a range of $60 billion to $62 billion, aligning closely with market expectations [6] Market Competition - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing in the rapidly growing GLP-1 agonist market, which is expected to exceed $150 billion in revenue over the next decade [6] - The oral weight loss drug market is projected to grow to $95 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly and others facing challenges in developing effective oral medications [7] - Eli Lilly plans to submit the results of its orforglipron study to regulatory authorities by the end of the year, with results expected to be presented at a medical conference in September [7][8] Future Outlook - Eli Lilly anticipates significant growth in demand for its weight loss drug Zepbound and aims to capture more market share from Novo Nordisk's Wegovy [6] - The company is making substantial investments to meet expected demand, including reserving at least $600 million worth of orforglipron and increasing production of necessary active ingredients [8]