Hua Xia Shi Bao·2025-08-07 12:27Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is expected to recover significantly by 2025, driven by favorable policies and improved market order, with passenger car retail growth projected at 6%, exports at 14%, and new energy vehicle wholesale growth at 27% [1][2]. Market Recovery and Growth - The China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) has raised its 2025 automotive industry forecast due to positive trends in the first half of the year, including a 10.8% increase in total passenger car retail and a 33.3% increase in new energy vehicle retail from January to June [2][4]. - The forecast for 2025 includes a retail volume of 24.35 million passenger cars, an increase of 300,000 units from previous estimates, and a wholesale volume of 34.04 million units, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Market Order Improvement - The phenomenon of "involution" and irrational price competition has significantly decreased, with the number of discounted models rising from 50 in 2020-2022 to 147 in 2024, but only 106 in the first half of 2025, indicating a return to rational pricing [2][4]. - The automotive industry's profit margin reached 6.9% in June, a notable increase from 3.8% in June of the previous year, reflecting improved market conditions [4]. Sales Performance - In July, all nine traditional car manufacturers reported year-on-year sales growth, with BYD and SAIC Motor leading with monthly sales around 340,000 units [4][5]. - Geely Auto showed the fastest growth rate in July, with sales exceeding 237,000 units, marking a 58% increase year-on-year [5][6]. New Energy Vehicle Outlook - The forecast for new energy vehicle wholesale in 2025 is set at 15.48 million units, with a penetration rate of 56%, despite a slight decrease from previous estimates [6][8]. - In July, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.18 million units, a 25% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from brands like Leap Motor and Xpeng Motors [7][8]. Export Growth - The forecast for passenger car exports in 2025 is 5.46 million units, reflecting a 14% increase, with a total increase of 160,000 units from earlier predictions [9]. - In the first half of 2025, China's automotive exports reached 3.083 million units, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, with passenger cars accounting for 84% of total automotive exports [9].