Freeport's Q2 Volumes Rise: Tepid Outlook Points to Challenges Ahead

Core Insights - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported a significant increase in sales volumes for Q2 2025, with copper sales rising approximately 9% year-over-year to 1,016 million pounds, gold sales increasing by around 45% to 522,000 ounces, and molybdenum sales up about 4.8% to 22 million pounds [1][7] Sales Volume Outlook - The company has provided a cautious outlook for Q3 2025, expecting copper sales volumes to decline by 4% year-over-year to 990 million pounds, with gold and molybdenum sales also projected to decrease to 350,000 ounces and 18 million pounds, respectively [2][7] Pricing and Margin Considerations - Sales volume growth is essential for FCX to capitalize on higher copper and gold prices, maintain margin expansion, and meet its 2025 targets, despite the gains in realized prices [3][7] Peer Comparison - Among peers, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) experienced a 3% decline in copper sales volumes in Q2, while BHP Group Limited reported a 14% year-over-year increase in total copper sales for fiscal 2025 [4][5] Stock Performance and Valuation - FCX shares have increased by 4.7% year-to-date, contrasting with a 1.1% decline in the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.9, slightly above the industry average of 18.69, and holds a Value Score of A [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings rise of 20.3% for 2025 and 31.9% for 2026, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [8]