PVC：开工率略增库存高，建议09 - 01反套

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing stable upstream calcium carbide prices, with a slight increase in PVC operating rates, but overall demand remains cautious and below historical levels [1] Supply Side - Calcium carbide prices are stable across most regions - PVC operating rate increased by 0.05 percentage points to 76.84%, still at a high level compared to previous years [1] Demand Side - Downstream operating rates for PVC have not changed significantly and remain low compared to previous years - India's BIS policy has been postponed for another six months until December 24, 2025, while Taiwan's Formosa Plastics lowered its August prices by $10 to $35 per ton - Recent export orders have been underwhelming, but India's delay in announcing anti-dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports [1] Inventory - Social inventory has continued to increase and remains at a high level, indicating significant inventory pressure [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is undergoing adjustments, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new starts, and completion areas from January to June 2025 - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has seen a slight increase but is at the lowest level for the same period in previous years, indicating that improvements in real estate will take time [1] Industry Profitability - Chlor-alkali comprehensive profits have shown some recovery, with PVC operating rates remaining stable but still under pressure - New capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have begun trial production, while calcium carbide prices are weakly supporting PVC [1] Policy Environment - There are currently no significant policies affecting the PVC industry, with most old facilities undergoing technical upgrades - Macro policies regarding anti-competition and the elimination of outdated facilities may impact future market conditions [1] Market Outlook - The recent rise in coking coal prices supports the PVC market, but the fundamental pressures on PVC remain significant - A downward trend is expected, with a recommendation for a 09 - 01 reverse spread operation [1]