无视通胀飙升！英国央行降息25个基点，英镑应声大涨

Core Points - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut since August 2024, amidst a delicate decision-making process [1][5][14] - The decision was made with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating significant internal disagreement regarding inflation risks [5][14] - Following the announcement, the UK stock market continued to decline, while the British pound surged against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.3432 [1] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a rise in consumer price inflation to 3.6% in June, the Bank of England proceeded with the rate cut, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation pressures [5][6] - The committee aims to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target, with expectations of a slight increase in CPI inflation to 4.0% in September before a decline [6][11] - The core inflation pressures from domestic prices and wages are continuing to decrease, although the pace varies [6][11] Monetary Policy and Future Guidance - The Bank of England emphasizes a gradual and cautious approach to future rate cuts, with decisions dependent on ongoing data and evidence [7][8][14] - The current economic environment shows signs of "slack," with risks to economic activity remaining, despite some easing of trade policy uncertainties [7][12] - Market expectations suggest a potential decline in the bank rate to 3.8% by Q4 2025, with further reductions in subsequent years, contingent on inflation trends [15]