Core Viewpoint - The aggressive trade policy initiated by the Trump administration is pushing the U.S. into a new phase of protectionism, creating significant uncertainty for the global economy and raising concerns about inflation and financial market impacts [1] Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Economic Impact - The new tariff policy has raised the average tariff rate in the U.S. from 2.3% last year to an alarming 15.2% [1] - The new tariffs will take effect on August 7, with specific rates for listed countries and a general rate of 10% for others, while goods circumventing tariffs through third-party countries will incur a 40% transfer tax [1] - Financial analysts from major institutions like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have warned that the S&P 500 index may face short-term declines in the coming weeks or months due to these changes [2] Group 2: Global Supply Chain and Negotiations - The announcement of new tariffs has created ongoing uncertainty in global supply chains, with many countries accepting the reality of high tariffs for the long term [3] - Key details regarding tariff exemptions for the automotive industry in the EU, Japan, and South Korea remain unresolved, contributing to continued uncertainty [4] - Countries like Switzerland have failed to negotiate lower tariffs, and additional tariffs have been imposed on goods from India in response to its oil imports from Russia [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Recent economic data indicates a significant downward revision in U.S. job growth, with consumer spending slowing and economic growth decelerating in the first half of the year [5] - Experts warn that while the current low unemployment rate and stable prices may not reflect immediate inflation, rising prices are likely as companies can no longer absorb increased costs [6] - The contradiction between rising tariff revenues and the goal of revitalizing domestic manufacturing raises questions about the long-term viability of the Trump administration's trade agenda [7]
特朗普关税即将正式生效 全球经济的考验才刚刚开始
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-07 14:18