秩序重构进行时 “黄金+”能否扶摇直上？

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in the global monetary system, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Performance - From 1971 to 1980, the price of gold surged from $35 to $850 per ounce, equivalent to $3,493 today, maintaining its purchasing power over time [1]. - The annualized return on gold from 1971 to 2023 is approximately 8%, with the past 20 years at 10.2% and the past 10 years at 13.6%, while 2024 has seen a remarkable increase of 28.2% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has changed since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with gold prices rising despite increasing real interest rates [2]. - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and the traditional bond market is prompting investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, including gold [3][10]. Group 3: Institutional and Retail Investment Trends - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US's AAA sovereign credit rating, which is influencing investor behavior towards gold as a safer investment [3]. - The "gold+" investment strategy is gaining traction, with many multi-asset portfolios allocating 5% to 10% of their assets to gold, and some reaching as high as 30% [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the global capital system are expected to sustain the demand for gold, as it is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty [10][11]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's gold reserves reported at 73.96 million ounces, marking a continuous increase [10].