未名宏观｜2025年7月汇率月报—全球降息潮变，人民币或承压震荡

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1385 to 7.2123, showing an overall appreciation, influenced by various global economic factors including the pause in interest rate cuts by major economies and the rising US inflation rate [2][4]. Market Review - The RMB onshore exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1610 and 7.1930, while the offshore rate ranged from 7.1520 to 7.2123 [3]. - Major economies paused interest rate cuts, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50% for five consecutive meetings [3]. - Japan's political instability led to a rise in bond yields, with the 40-year bond yield reaching 3.46% and the 10-year bond yield hitting a new high of 1.60% [3]. - The US economy showed mixed signals, with inflation rates rising and the unemployment rate increasing to 4.2% in July [3]. Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the previous year's growth by 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [4]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.10 and 7.25 in August 2025 [6]. - Factors supporting the RMB include China's rising international status and the high yields of Japanese long-term bonds, which may lead to concerns about the outflow of capital from the US dollar [6]. - Conversely, potential downward pressures on the RMB may arise from the changing global interest rate environment, particularly if the US Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance [7].