LLY Stock Sinks Despite Q2 Earnings Beat as Obesity Pill Disappoints

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) reported strong second-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.31, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.61, and a 61% year-over-year increase in earnings [1] - Revenues reached $15.56 billion, a 38% year-over-year increase, driven by sales of tirzepatide medicines, including diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine Zepbound, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.749 billion [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - U.S. revenues increased by 38% to $10.81 billion, while ex-U.S. revenues rose by 37% to $4.74 billion [2] - Mounjaro sales were $5.2 billion, up 68% year over year, exceeding estimates [3] - Zepbound sales reached $3.38 billion, a 172% increase year over year, also beating estimates [4] Competitive Landscape - Mounjaro and Zepbound face competition from Novo Nordisk's semaglutide medicines, Ozempic and Wegovy, which have seen lowered sales expectations due to competitive pressures [5] - Other companies like Amgen and Viking Therapeutics are developing more potent GLP-1-based candidates [6] Key Drug Performance - Trulicity generated $1.09 billion in revenue, down 12% year over year, but still beat estimates [7] - Jardiance sales declined by 10% to $690 million, surpassing estimates [7] - Taltz brought in $847.6 million, up 3% year over year, but missed estimates [8] - Verzenio generated $1.49 billion, up 12% year over year, but also missed estimates [8] - New drugs like Jaypirca, Omvoh, and Ebglyss contributed to sales growth [9][10] Guidance Update - Lilly raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, up from $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, and increased EPS guidance to $21.75 to $23.00 [11] Orforglipron Study Results - The oral obesity pill orforglipron showed a weight loss of 12.4%, which was below investor expectations, leading to a decline in shares [14][19] - Despite meeting primary endpoints, the weight loss results were disappointing compared to competitors [14][19] - Lilly plans to submit regulatory applications for orforglipron by the end of the year [15] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, shares fell approximately 12% in pre-market trading due to the underwhelming results of orforglipron [19][20] - Lilly's stock has declined 3% year-to-date, compared to a 4.2% decrease in the industry [20]