美联储降息救市！8月7日，今日凌晨的五大消息已全面来袭

Core Insights - The article discusses the tension within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions amidst conflicting economic indicators and political pressures from President Trump [4][5][6][7][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC meeting on July 29 revealed significant internal dissent, with two members voting against the decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [5]. - Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller expressed concerns that failing to lower rates could leave the Fed behind the economic curve, citing declining consumer demand and a cooling job market [5]. - The meeting concluded with a 9-2 vote to keep rates unchanged, removing previous language suggesting potential rate cuts based on future data [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals, with the core CPI rising to 2.9%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, while PCE inflation is near the ideal level of 2% when excluding tariff impacts [7]. - The second quarter GDP appeared to rebound, but this was primarily due to a decrease in imports, with domestic demand growth at a two-and-a-half-year low [7]. - The burden of $37 trillion in national debt is highlighted, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, consuming a significant portion of federal tax revenue [7]. Group 3: Political Influence and Market Reactions - President Trump's direct demand for a 300 basis point rate cut has intensified scrutiny on the Fed's independence, leading to market volatility and speculation about Powell's job security [4][6]. - Following Trump's contradictory statements regarding Powell's potential dismissal, market reactions included a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index [4]. - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut in September, with expectations rising from under 40% to nearly 90% [10]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - A global financial shift is underway, with central banks selling $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries and accumulating 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [8]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN moving towards alternative trade networks [8]. - China's holdings of U.S. debt have dropped to their lowest level since 2009, while the use of the yuan in cross-border transactions has surged [8].