最近住建部发声，未来房地产依然重要，但房价上涨仍困难

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant shift, moving away from the era of wealth accumulation through property investment, with a focus on refined operations and stable development in the future [1] Policy Shift - The central government has shifted its approach from large-scale demolition and construction to a more measured strategy, emphasizing urban renewal and the gradual improvement of existing housing rather than creating new bubbles [2][3] - The budget for affordable housing projects in 2025 is set at 130 billion yuan, a stark contrast to the 1.84 trillion yuan spent on demolition projects in 2015 [2] - Recent issuance of 102 billion yuan in special real estate bonds indicates a focus on land reserve and inventory digestion rather than extensive new construction [2] Key Differences in Urban Renewal - Funding for urban renewal has drastically decreased, with total funding now under 1 trillion yuan compared to 3.67 trillion yuan during the previous demolition period [5] - There is a significant backlog in both new and second-hand housing, with 760 million square meters of unsold properties and over 12 million second-hand homes listed [6] - Household debt levels are high, with the household leverage ratio exceeding 70%, leading to financial strain for many families [8] Market Sentiment and Demand - Market confidence has eroded, with 92% of surveyed individuals believing that housing prices will continue to decline, creating a self-reinforcing negative feedback loop [8] - The psychological barrier of "buying high" persists, as evidenced by a 15% price drop in a new development leading to a 25% decrease in transaction volume [8] Future Outlook - The real estate market is becoming increasingly polarized, with demand concentrated on core urban areas while peripheral locations struggle to attract buyers [9] - The recommendation for individuals is to view real estate as a durable consumer good rather than a wealth symbol, advising the sale of underperforming properties and maintaining cash reserves [9] - The current housing inventory and market conditions suggest that even with supportive policies, a return to previous price peaks is unlikely [9]