CINNO Research：需求初现回暖迹象 预计8月面板价格跌幅将有所收窄

Core Viewpoint - The domestic TV market in China experienced a 10% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q2, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces and cities. However, demand is expected to recover moderately in August as subsidy funds are fully allocated and brands prepare for the peak season [3][4]. Group 1: Demand Side Analysis - In July, the end of the 618 shopping festival and a funding gap in the "trade-in" subsidy program led to weakened terminal demand. However, as August approaches, traditional stocking season is near, and brands have significantly reduced inventory, enhancing stocking momentum [4]. - The third batch of 690 billion yuan "trade-in" special bonds was fully allocated on August 1, with a fourth batch of the same amount expected to be released in October, which is likely to boost demand in the second half of the year [4]. - The extension of tariffs by the U.S. on China and Mexico for an additional 90 days has alleviated pressure on overseas demand [4]. Group 2: Supply Side Analysis - In July, the average operating rate of high-generation LCD TV panel production lines was approximately 78%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [5]. - The G8.6 production line, which is the main production control line, saw a reduction of about 5 percentage points, which may help stabilize prices for ultra-large panels of 85 inches and above [5]. - In August, brand stocking demand is expected to recover, with the operating rate anticipated to rise to around 80%, and panel shipments are projected to increase by 7% year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Overall demand for panels in August is expected to remain weak, with prices continuing to decline but showing signs of differentiation. The price for the mainstream 32-inch panel is expected to stabilize at $32, while prices for medium to large panels may see a decline of $1 to $4 compared to July [6]. - The expected prices for various panel sizes in August are as follows: 43-inch at $63, 50-inch at $87, 65-inch at $113, 75-inch at $165, and 85-inch at $220 [6].