中金：美国通胀进入上行周期，可能干扰美联储降息节奏

Core Viewpoint - The research indicates that tariffs have contributed to a localized rebound in U.S. inflation, with seasonal adjustment methods underestimating inflation by nearly 20 basis points over the past two months [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have not yet reflected the true situation of the inflation rebound [1] - A prediction is made that the CPI may confirm an upward turning point in the next 1-2 months, with the earliest validation expected on August 12 [1] - The upward cycle of CPI year-on-year may last for about a year [1] - Economic Implications - The rising inflation in the U.S. could disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule, introducing new variables for global assets [1] - Estimation Methods - An input-output table can be used to estimate the extent of the inflation increase [1]