Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-08 00:27Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that as of the end of July 2025, the CCPI-crude oil price spread is approximately 294, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, reflecting high volatility in oil prices due to ongoing global macroeconomic tensions [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The downstream chemical products are entering a demand off-season, leading to a decline in chemical product price spreads [1] - The main products with price increases in July are due to supply contraction and favorable inventory reductions from previous periods [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The industry has reached a profit bottom in recent years, and under policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [1] - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will drive demand increases, making exports a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] Group 3: Supply and Capital Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of capital expenditure in the supply side of the industry turned negative for the first time since early 2021, indicating a faster adjustment on the supply side [1] - The second half of 2025 may see a recovery starting point, with cost pressures easing and demand improvements likely leading to a quicker recovery in downstream sectors [1]