稀土产业链旺季来啦，关注有色60ETF（159881）、矿业ETF（561330）

Core Viewpoint - The market showed mixed performance on August 7, with gold stocks, mining, and non-ferrous sectors demonstrating resilience, as evidenced by the significant year-to-date gains in related ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Gold Stock ETF (517400) rose by 1.58% on August 7, with a year-to-date increase of 42.03% [2]. - Mining ETF (561330) increased by 1.23% on August 7, achieving a year-to-date gain of 32.37% [2]. - Non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) saw a rise of 0.98% on August 7, with a year-to-date increase of 28.19% [2]. Group 2: Rare Earth Industry Insights - The rare earth industry is entering a traditional consumption peak in August, with increased downstream demand leading to higher procurement [3]. - Major manufacturers in the magnetic materials sector have orders scheduled through mid-September, and export controls are gradually easing, strengthening both domestic and export orders [3]. - Supply constraints due to U.S.-China tariff conflicts and political issues in Myanmar have led to a significant decline in domestic rare earth product imports in the first half of the year [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Xiangcai Securities indicates that sustained supply tightness and steady demand are likely to support prices in the short term, leading to a bullish market sentiment [3]. - The recommendation is to focus on upstream rare earth resource companies that may benefit from rising prices due to supply contraction and increased demand from eased export controls [3]. - In the medium to long term, as rare earth prices recover, profitability for downstream magnetic material companies is expected to improve [4]. Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The ISM services PMI dropped to 50.1, near a three-year low, putting pressure on the dollar index and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 92% [3]. - This environment has led to increased risk appetite in the market, with funds flowing into commodities, although caution remains due to external uncertainties [3]. - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals is positive under the influence of anticipated Fed rate cuts, but there is differentiation among varieties due to supply-demand structural differences [4].