螺纹钢承压震荡

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of July, rebar prices have weakened, with the main futures price dropping by 4.43% from its peak, and spot prices in major regions have also declined by 30 to 90 yuan per ton, indicating a correction in optimistic sentiment and accumulated industry contradictions putting pressure on steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Changes - The dominant logic in the black metal market since July has been the policy expectations brought by "anti-involution," but the limited realization of these expectations has led to a correction in optimism [2] - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need to regulate disorderly competition in enterprises and advance capacity governance in key industries, which has altered market expectations regarding the "anti-involution" policy [2] - The absence of direct mentions of real estate in the recent Politburo meeting has weakened expectations for loosening policies in the real estate sector [2] Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [2] - The PMI for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remained above the critical point at 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, while the consumer goods industry PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points from June [3] - The production and business activity expectation index for July rose to 52.6%, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 1, rebar inventory totaled 5.4629 million tons, an increase of 76,500 tons from the previous week, but still down 1.9608 million tons year-on-year, reflecting a 26.41% decrease [4] - The current market for rebar shows a dual weakness in supply and demand, with production declining to 2.1106 million tons per week, down 228,300 tons from previous highs [4] - Despite low supply, the positive effects are limited as some steel mills are returning to rebar production due to good profit margins, and the operating rate of electric arc furnaces has risen to a high level [4] Group 4: Demand Weakness - The weekly demand for rebar as of August 1 was 2.0341 million tons, a new low, down 5.67% year-on-year, indicating persistent weakness in demand [6] - Cement and concrete shipment volumes have also shown declines of 10.43% and 4.91% year-on-year, respectively, further confirming weak demand in construction-related sectors [6] - The real estate market remains sluggish, with no substantial improvements in downstream industries, and infrastructure investment is unlikely to increase significantly [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - The correction in market optimism has led to a decline in rebar prices, with the operational logic of the steel market returning to industry fundamentals [7] - The weak demand situation is expected to persist, and the limited supply benefits may not significantly alleviate the pressure on prices, indicating a potential for continued price fluctuations [7]