华鑫期货：煤炭价格短期面临调整

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with coking coal futures rising sharply, while the supply-demand dynamics are influenced by government policies and production adjustments [1][9]. Coal Supply - As of August 1, the average daily production of thermal coal was 5.474 million tons, a decrease of 188,000 tons week-on-week, with a utilization rate of 91% [2]. - The average production of raw coal from January to June was 2.40455 billion tons, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, while coal imports decreased by 11.1% to 221.75 million tons [2]. - The total supply of domestic raw coal (production plus imports) was 2.6263 billion tons, up 4.4% year-on-year [2]. Coal Demand - The proportion of thermal coal in raw coal is 83%, primarily used for power generation, with a 2.4% year-on-year decline in power generation from January to June [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to increase by approximately 23% in August due to summer peak electricity consumption, but is projected to decline by 14.7% in September and 22% in October compared to August [3]. Coking Coal Supply - From January to June, coking coal production was 237.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while imports decreased by 7.3% to 52.9 million tons [4]. - The total supply of coking coal (domestic production plus imports) was 291 million tons, an increase of 2.47% year-on-year, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [4][5]. Coking Coal Demand - The cumulative pig iron production increased by 3.2% year-on-year, suggesting stable demand for coking coal [5]. - Potential production cuts in steel mills may lead to a decrease in coking coal demand from August to October [6]. Coal and Coking Coal Inventory - As of August 1, the inventory of thermal coal at 55 ports was 66.836 million tons, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but still at historically high levels [7]. - The total inventory of coking coal was 23.269 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [7]. Production Costs, Prices, and Basis - Global thermal coal prices remain low, with Newcastle thermal coal at $113.85 per ton, while domestic thermal coal prices have stabilized, increasing from 609 yuan per ton to 674 yuan per ton since June [8]. - The production cost of domestic coking coal ranges from 500 to 882 yuan per ton, with international average costs between 430 to 580 yuan per ton [8]. - The current coking coal price is at a relatively low level, positioned at 36.7% between the historical minimum and maximum prices from March 2013 to August 2023 [8].