中金：美国通胀未来1 - 2个月或迎上行拐点

Core Insights - The article highlights that inflation in the United States may experience an upward turning point in the next 1-2 months, influenced by tariffs causing a localized rebound in inflation [1] - It notes that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings have been underestimated by nearly 20 basis points due to flaws in seasonal adjustment methods, failing to reflect the true state of inflation [1] - The company predicts that the CPI month-on-month may confirm an upward turning point as early as August 12, with the year-on-year upward cycle expected to last for about a year [1] - The anticipated rise in inflation could disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule, introducing new variables for global assets [1] Summary by Categories Inflation Trends - Tariffs have led to a localized rebound in U.S. inflation [1] - CPI readings have been underestimated by nearly 20 basis points due to seasonal adjustment flaws [1] Predictions - CPI month-on-month may confirm an upward turning point within 1-2 months, potentially as soon as August 12 [1] - The year-on-year upward cycle of CPI is expected to last for approximately one year [1] Implications - Rising inflation may interfere with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule [1] - Global assets may face new uncertainties due to the anticipated inflation trends [1]