美联储掌门更迭将近：沃勒稳，哈塞特、沃什惹人忧！

Core Viewpoint - The potential successors to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are under close scrutiny by investors and strategists, with market reactions likely influenced by the perceived alignment of these candidates with President Trump's views [1][4]. Candidate Analysis - Christopher Waller is seen as the top candidate for the Fed chair position, and his appointment could lead to positive market reactions due to continuity in leadership [1][3][5]. - Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are also considered potential nominees, but their close ties to Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to negative market responses [1][9]. Market Expectations - Investors expect the next Fed chair to be a loyal supporter of Trump with a dovish stance, which could influence market dynamics [2]. - The market's reaction may vary based on how closely candidates are perceived to align with Trump's policies, with a stronger alignment likely resulting in negative impacts on U.S. assets [4][9]. Policy Continuity - Waller's support for immediate rate cuts and his flexible approach during his tenure at the Fed suggest he could maintain the current management style, which may be welcomed by the market [6][5]. - Analysts believe that if Hassett is nominated, it could lead to rising long-term Treasury yields and a sell-off in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence [9]. Independence Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a central concern for investors, with potential nominees' connections to the White House being a significant factor in market reactions [4][10]. - If a nominee is perceived as lacking experience in the Fed or economic fields, it could lead to the most significant market disruptions and further questions about the Fed's independence [10].