化工行业：7月CCPI-原油价差约294，25H2或迎复苏

Core Insights - As of the end of July 2025, the CCPI - crude oil price spread is approximately 294, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, indicating a low point for chemical product profitability [1] - The global macroeconomic situation is characterized by high volatility in oil prices, and the downstream chemical product demand is in a seasonal decline, leading to a decrease in price spreads [1] - Recent price increases in July were primarily due to supply contraction and previous inventory reductions, while industry profitability has been at a low point in recent years [1] - Under policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are accelerating, and profitability for bulk chemical products is expected to improve [1] - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with demand growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will drive the growth of the chemical industry through exports [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry's capital expenditure growth rate turned negative, but a recovery point may be reached in the second half of 2025, with downstream sectors likely to recover first [1]