Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-08 01:30Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing weak price differentials as of July, with supply-side adjustments expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of the end of July 2025, the CCPI - crude oil price differential is approximately 294, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012 [1] - Global macroeconomic tensions are causing high volatility in oil prices, while most downstream chemical products are entering a demand off-season, leading to a decline in chemical product price differentials [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Price increases in July were primarily due to supply reductions and effective destocking from previous periods [1] - The industry's profitability has been at a low point in recent years, but under policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, which may lead to improved profitability for bulk chemical products [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is expected to contribute to demand increases [1] - The export market is becoming a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry's capital expenditure growth rate turned negative for the first time since early 2021, indicating a shift in supply-side adjustments [1] - The second half of 2025 may see a recovery starting point, with downstream sectors likely to recover first due to cost reductions and improved demand [1]